This figure confirms that SPEAR simulates very high Southwest U.S. precipitation totals in December-January in at least some of the simulated winter La Nias. Winter 2022/2023 snowfall predictions come together as the cold meteorological season is about to begin. The brown bars indicate events with below-average precipitation, and the green bars indicate events with above-average precipitation. So, I did not see any obviously linear effect of La Nina amplitude in the observational analysis. The January snowfall forecast shows more potential in northern and western Europe. The Met Office adds: What about the moisture? It added its 10-day or longer forecasts are only . New for the 2023 edition are weather summaries and maps for all four seasons in 2023. We'll let you know if/when he does! Hourly. The new forecast, issued Aug.18, 2022, is pegged on the thought that La Nia is expected to continue through this winter before fading to near normal water temperatures next spring. Oct. 13 2022, Published 3:08 p.m. To analyze the effect of different sea surface temperature patterns on early-winter precipitation in the Southwest during La Nia, I first defined two groups: the wettest 20% and driest 20% of simulations. Winter has arrived, but what's the potential for cold and snow in the UK? The precipitation anomalies are divided into 10 evenly spaced bins, and the number of La Nia events is totaled for each bin. So, next, we want to know if there are any consistent differences in the sea surface temperature pattern between La Nias that lead to wet versus dry early winters in the Southwest. How unusual were these Southwestern wet conditions in the first two-thirds of a La Nia winter? Their precip map show wetter that normal conditions for California during these types of events. I'm pleased you're joining us today to discuss the Southwest Gas Holdings fourth quarter and year-end results. Minimum temperature 2C. Updated 15 February 2023. The ENSO blog is written, edited, and moderated by Michelle LHeureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (University of Miami/CIMAS), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and Tom DiLiberto and Rebecca Lindsey (contractors to NOAA Climate Program Office), with periodic guest contributors. To solidify this conclusion, I continued my investigation by calculating how much the variations in the La Nia sea surface temperature pattern contribute to the variations in Southwest U.S. DecemberJanuary precipitation in the SPEAR simulations. The figure below shows that most (13 of 21) of the La Nias from 1951-2020 had below-average December-January precipitation in this region (1), although wet early winters during La Nia clearly are not that unusual. The December snow depth forecast shows widespread negative anomalies. Regions further east, on the other hand, will probably experience precipitation levels more typical for the time of year. Further showers on Monday and more likely wintry, with some snow possible over hills on Tuesday. Rain arriving across western and north-western areas, heavy at times and accompanied by gusty winds. Between 2013 and 2022, we delivered an organic revenue CAGR of 11. . Overall, the UKMO shows a decent snow season across the northern United States. We cannot rule out the possibility that the model is missing some sort of predictable connection between a particular flavor of La Nia sea surface temperatures and Southwest precipitation. Thanks for your questions. The format of this forecast is simple. There are also some hints of a cold event reaching down to the south-central United States. Share. The Met Office has warned that snow may appear across the north and west of the UK as early as 9 November. This connection has been hypothesized, but the evidence is mixed. It will modify the jet stream pattern over North America and the Pacific Ocean, extending its reach to the rest of the world. But what does that mean for snowfall potential? The 2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Submitted by emily.becker on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 17:12, In reply to sampling differences by John N-G. That's a good question! Overall, however, the winter season is not predicted to be overly wet. This winter it seems the temps were fairly uniform across the equator. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 10:32. With temperatures so warm winter and the chance of snow feel somewhat distant. Its interesting to note that the La Nia dry signal over the Southwest U.S. appears to be a little more robust in February-March than December-January, as 15 of the 21 events classified as La Nia in December-February had drier-than-average conditions in February-March. Also, CPC data reveals an East Pacific MJO episode in January. South West England weather - Met Office South West England weather South West England Bristol 6 Plymouth 8 Bournemouth 7 Exeter 6 Bath 5 Taunton 6 Barnstaple 6 Camborne 6 Dorchester 6. When we plug those values in, we get (0.725)2/(0.194)2 = 14, which is why I conclude that chaotic weather variations are about 14 times more important than the variations caused by sea surface temperature variations for December-January Southwest U.S. precipitation during La Nia events. These milder conditions may extend north periodically, but it's possible that the cold but bright weather could return south to all parts through late March, bringing a return to drier conditions to the south. A larger deficit can be seen over northern Europe and the Alps. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from the NOAA GFDL SPEAR climate model. (Please understand we are not monitoring the blog 24/7.). Besides the northwestern United States and the Midwest, we can see more snowfall potential over the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. One of the main points of this post is that it's difficult to rule out the role of chaotic atmospheric variability that is unrelated to the underlying sea surface temperatures when it comes to unusual Southwest U.S. precipitation. That means forecasts will bust from time to time, and success or failure must be evaluated over many forecasts. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Tue, 02/28/2023 - 15:50. That total is deceptive as many areas in Tucson area had 6-7 inches today, Meanwhile Washington DC and Philadelphia have had less than 1/2 inch snow this winter, Submitted by Craig T on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 16:22. Light winds. Even with the mild winter in the East, we had two notable cold spells, one in late December and the other in early February, so there have been some wild swings this winter! January 2023 La Nia update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2, SST - ENSO Region, Monthly Difference from Average, El Nio-Southern Oscillation - Indicators and technical discussions, Detecting El Nio in Sea Surface Temperature Data. The colder air is more easily accessible to the northern United States, which increases the snowfall potential if enough moisture is available. Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Above-normal precipitation is possible in northwestern Montana, northern Idaho and northeastern Washington state. The seasonal outlook looks at temperature and precipitation trends between December 2021 through February 2022. Fast, informative and written just for locals. In the West, the drought persists. Above-normal precipitation is forecast in part of the Ohio Valley, an area that could pick up above-normal snowfall if temperatures remain low enough. We dont end up with enough events in each group, and the noise of chaotic weather variability hides the signal we are trying to identify. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast. Meet COP21 Education Ambassador Shannon Bartholomew! A Tale Of Two Winters Across The US, According To Old Farmer's Almanac The Old. Europe is not known to have any specific/direct influences, as it is too far from the source regions. When we average across all outcomes, we filter out the effects of chaotic climate variability (3). Average DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) for all La Nia events from 1951-2020, defined as La Nia occurring in DecemberFebruary. During the back half of the winter, AccuWeather says, colder conditions finally will enter the country and drop cold air into the central United States, bringing heavy snow to parts of the central Plains and the Rocky Mountains. ENSO phases significantly influence tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the complex exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. The official NOAA Temperature outlook points: The official precipitation forecast is also quite similar to the latest model forecasts. The snowfall forecast focuses the most snowfall on the Midwest. That storminess is not expected to slow in the eastern half of the country, with the almanac suggesting snowy conditions into the Northeast. Typically there is a phase change around every 1-3 years. We can run multiple simulations in which the ocean is always the sameforced to match observed sea surface temperatures, including all La Nias from 1951-2020but the starting atmospheric conditions are very slightly different each time. Check out the full 2022-23 Extended Winter Weather Forecast from The Farmer's Almanac below. Precipitation-wise, La Nina winters are usually drier over the southern United States. We first have to take a quick look at the leading global weather driver for the upcoming winter season, La Nina. For entertainment purposes, we also summarize the outlooks from the Farmers Almanac and its rival, the Old Farmers almanac but meteorologists put little stock in those predictions. The Old Farmers Almanac is predicting a divided nation with harsh winter in the East and mild weather in the West. La Nina is a climate pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean but impacts the global weather forecast. A large swath of the country, from the East Coast down into the Sun Belt and into the Mountain West, is projected to experience above-normal temperatures, with the highest probability of abnormal warmth in Arizona and New Mexico. Northerly winds (i.e. If skies are clear, temperatures can fall gradually day-by-day because the sun is weak and there is little cloud to keep in any heat at night. The widely followed youtube weather channel, is calling for a mixed bag of weather this upcoming winter season. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast.